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This publication presents monthly information on sales of new motor vehicles in each state/territory in original, seasonally adjusted and trend estimated terms. The original data are sourced from the Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries. Sales data are available for passenger vehicles, other vehicles and total vehicles at the state/territory and national levels.


NOVEMBER 2002 KEY POINTS

Trend

Trend estimates indicate that total new motor vehicle sales have continued to show a gradual decline in the rate of growth since July 2002. November 2002 recorded zero growth compared with the previous month. A rise of 0.3% was recorded for passenger vehicle sales and a fall of 0.5% was recorded for other vehicle sales.

Victoria and Western Australia recorded small increases in the trend estimates of total new motor vehicle sales in November 2002 compared with the previous month, with each rising by 0.5%. All other states and territories either remained steady or showed small decreases.

Seasonally adjusted

The seasonally adjusted estimate of total new motor vehicle sales fell by 2.7% in November compared with October 2002. A small decrease was recorded for passenger vehicle sales (0.7%) with a larger decrease recorded in other vehicle sales (6.2%).


NOTES


CHANGES THIS ISSUE

This edition includes changes to the seasonally adjusted series and the trend estimate series as a result of the annual re-estimation of the seasonal factors.

The next annual re-estimation of the seasonal factors will be undertaken after data for reference month October 2003 have been released.



DATA QUALITY

Due to a processing problem with the data supplier for heavy truck sales, other vehicles were understated by 367 units in July 2002. These missing units have been included in the August 2002 sales data for other vehicles. The impact on the original series is as follows: New South Wales (119 units), Victoria (63 units), Queensland (84 units), South Australia (18 units), Western Australia (65 units), Tasmania (14 units) and the Northern Territory (4 units).


TREND REVISIONS

The most recent trend estimates are likely to be revised when new seasonally adjusted estimates become available. For further information see Explanatory Notes 9 and 10.

The graph below presents the effect of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimates.

		Passenger vehicles (No.)	Other vehicles (a) (No.)	Total vehicles (No.)	Change Passenger vehicles (%)	Change Other vehicles (%)	Change Total vehicles (%)
Original
2001	September	40,257	18,992	59,249	-10.3	-10.1	-10.2
	October	45,575	20,805	66,380	13.2	9.5	12.0
	November	47,510	23,252	70,762	4.2	11.8	6.6
	December	48,193	20,838	69,031	1.4	-10.4	-2.4
2002	January	39,779	18,778	58,557	-17.5	-9.9	-15.2
	February	42,776	22,019	64,795	7.5	17.3	10.7
	March	44,828	22,996	67,824	4.8	4.4	4.7
	April	42,052	21,834	63,886	-6.2	-5.1	-5.8
	May	46,448	26,675	73,123	10.5	22.2	14.5
	June	49,101	29,680	78,781	5.7	11.3	7.7
	July	45,923	23,859	69,782	-6.5	-19.6	-11.4
	August	45,122	24,525	69,647	-1.7	2.8	-0.2
	September	43,396	22,638	66,034	-3.8	-7.7	-5.2
	October	48,269	24,063	72,332	11.2	6.3	9.5
	November	47,229	24,346	71,575	-2.2	1.2	-1.0
Seasonally Adjusted
2001	September	44,419	21,880	66,299	1.9	4.4	2.7
	October	43,431	21,252	64,683	-2.2	-2.9	-2.4
	November	43,864	21,910	65,774	1.0	3.1	1.7
	December	46,133	20,054	66,187	5.2	-8.5	0.6
2002	January	49,079	24,810	73,889	6.4	23.7	11.6
	February	45,699	23,668	69,367	-6.9	-4.6	-6.1
	March	43,408	21,857	65,265	-5.0	-7.7	-5.9
	April	45,648	23,651	69,299	5.2	8.2	6.2
	May	45,401	24,316	69,717	-0.5	2.8	0.6
	June	44,705	23,749	68,454	-1.5	-2.3	-1.8
	July	44,390	24,048	68,438	-0.7	1.3	0.0
	August	45,301	25,217	70,518	2.1	4.9	3.0
	September	45,947	25,194	71,141	1.4	-0.1	0.9
	October	45,791	24,955	70,746	-0.3	-0.9	-0.6
	November	45,464	23,406	68,870	-0.7	-6.2	-2.7
Trend
2001	September	43,829	21,165	64,994	0.7	1.7	1.0
	October	44,334	21,541	65,875	1.2	1.8	1.4
	November	44,910	21,875	66,785	1.3	1.6	1.4
	December	45,425	22,214	67,639	1.1	1.5	1.3
2002	January	45,785	22,601	68,386	0.8	1.7	1.1
	February	45,873	22,979	68,852	0.2	1.7	0.7
	March	45,672	23,291	68,963	-0.4	1.4	0.2
	April	45,308	23,555	68,863	-0.8	1.1	-0.1
	May	44,990	23,834	68,824	-0.7	1.2	-0.1
	June	44,906	24,133	69,039	-0.2	1.3	0.3
	July	45,063	24,443	69,506	0.3	1.3	0.7
	August	45,257	24,657	69,914	0.4	0.9	0.6
	September	45,420	24,704	70,124	0.4	0.2	0.3
	October	45,561	24,635	70,196	0.3	-0.3	0.1
	November	45,715	24,510	70,225	0.3	-0.5	0.0
(a) Other vehicle figures for July 2002 and August 2002 have been affected by reporting problems. See Notes.

		NSW (No.)	Vic. (No.)	Qld (No.)	SA (No.)	WA (No.)	Tas. (No.)	NT (No.)	ACT (No.)	Aust. (No.)
Original
2001	September	21,272	16,295	10,303	3,670	5,197	1,044	508	960	59,249
	October	23,535	18,442	11,430	4,148	5,725	1,257	618	1,225	66,380
	November	24,667	19,544	12,505	4,515	6,118	1,427	670	1,316	70,762
	December	22,979	19,502	12,045	4,379	6,649	1,873	571	1,033	69,031
2002	January	20,414	15,658	10,737	3,727	5,481	989	525	1,026	58,557
	February	22,108	17,336	12,252	4,168	6,159	1,090	553	1,129	64,795
	March	23,923	18,330	12,694	4,224	5,880	1,093	658	1,022	67,824
	April	22,428	17,250	11,671	3,985	5,642	1,103	624	1,183	63,886
	May	25,763	19,540	13,507	4,648	6,344	1,343	763	1,215	73,123
	June	27,496	20,296	15,035	5,143	7,348	1,294	813	1,356	78,781
	July	24,643	18,721	13,462	4,457	5,562	1,174	579	1,184	69,782
	August	23,456	18,942	13,516	4,537	6,102	1,311	597	1,186	69,647
	September	22,236	18,765	12,497	4,187	5,493	1,239	507	1,110	66,034
	October	24,618	20,185	13,456	4,499	6,627	1,203	580	1,164	72,332
	November	24,349	19,829	13,224	4,641	6,320	1,398	628	1,186	71,575
Seasonally Adjusted
2001	September	23,662	17,914	11,846	4,191	5,834	1,104	618	1,130	66,299
	October	22,810	17,422	11,581	4,083	5,707	1,259	626	1,195	64,683
	November	22,703	18,093	11,881	4,123	5,803	1,296	638	1,237	65,774
	December	22,558	18,453	11,506	4,120	6,647	1,268	613	1,022	66,187
2002	January	25,864	19,891	13,486	4,883	6,524	1,322	673	1,246	73,889
	February	23,890	18,492	12,906	4,483	6,441	1,305	638	1,212	69,367
	March	23,102	18,035	12,072	4,118	5,233	1,144	605	956	65,265
	April	24,378	18,490	12,743	4,359	6,140	1,254	609	1,326	69,299
	May	24,448	18,804	12,968	4,370	6,041	1,315	659	1,112	69,717
	June	23,768	18,491	12,265	4,448	6,334	1,299	634	1,215	68,454
	July	23,332	18,419	13,518	4,360	5,904	1,210	586	1,109	68,438
	August	24,094	18,986	13,768	4,427	6,190	1,256	617	1,180	70,518
	September	23,778	19,665	13,771	4,581	6,154	1,292	596	1,304	71,141
	October	24,025	19,026	13,887	4,434	6,434	1,225	588	1,127	70,746
	November	23,130	19,251	12,847	4,426	6,192	1,289	617	1,118	68,870
Trend
2001	September	22,817	17,916	11,514	4,066	5,758	1,173	616	1,134	64,994
	October	23,083	18,090	11,734	4,116	5,854	1,218	627	1,153	65,875
	November	23,338	18,292	11,979	4,165	5,959	1,254	634	1,164	66,785
	December	23,583	18,486	12,236	4,206	6,053	1,276	635	1,164	67,639
2002	January	23,824	18,643	12,457	4,247	6,139	1,281	636	1,159	68,386
	February	24,019	18,700	12,589	4,285	6,193	1,275	635	1,156	68,852
	March	24,115	18,635	12,649	4,316	6,198	1,263	633	1,154	68,963
	April	24,087	18,536	12,696	4,342	6,159	1,257	629	1,157	68,863
	May	23,989	18,500	12,805	4,366	6,114	1,259	624	1,167	68,824
	June	23,901	18,591	12,999	4,394	6,098	1,261	619	1,176	69,039
	July	23,870	18,778	13,248	4,424	6,125	1,264	613	1,184	69,506
	August	23,820	18,959	13,458	4,449	6,170	1,264	608	1,186	69,914
	September	23,734	19,107	13,569	4,464	6,206	1,261	603	1,180	70,124
	October	23,638	19,226	13,598	4,468	6,238	1,259	599	1,170	70,196
	November	23,564	19,316	13,580	4,470	6,270	1,259	597	1,169	70,225
(a) Other vehicle figures for July 2002 and August 2002 have been affected by reporting problems. See Notes.